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HIV Eradication May Require Regime Change in HIV Industry


Having collected the data in 2012, the Kenya Aids Indicator Survey (KAIS) was released last week. Prevalence has fallen in most provinces. The exceptions are Northeastern Province, where data was not collected due to civil unrest, and Nyanza, where prevalence has increased from almost 14% in 2008 to 15% in 2012. 37% of Kenya’s HIV positive people reside in Nyanza. So the news is not so bad if you don’t come from Nyanza, especially if you don’t come from any of the exceptionally high prevalence towns on the shores of Lake Victoria.

Prevalence is now 5.6%, closer to Tanzania’s 5.1% than Uganda’s 7.2%. As usual, HIV prevalence is generally higher among women (6.9%) than among men (4.4%), higher among urban dwelling people than rural dwelling people and higher among employed people than unemployed people. Prevalence is lowest among females and males who have less education and higher among those who have completed primary or reached secondary or beyond. Prevalence tends to be higher among wealthier quintiles in rural areas and among poorer quintiles in urban areas, which may represent a change in HIV prevalence by wealth quintiles in earlier surveys.

With about 100,000 people being newly infected each year, incidence is said to be 0.5% and the highest number of new infections occurred among people aged between 25 and 34 years, with incidence estimated at 1.2%. Incidence has barely changed between 2007 and 2012, what the report refers to as ‘stable’. The entire epidemic could be described as stable, rather than declining, as prevalence has remained much the same for more than ten years.

Predictably, there are quite a few figures relating to the mass male circumcision program. You don’t put tens of millions of dollars into a program without making sure that you collect data showing that the program was successful. Clearly the program is not successful yet, with the bulk of circumcisions claimed for Nyanza province, which has a prevalence figure nearly three times the national figure. But there is a lot of triumphalist stuff about how high HIV prevalence is among uncircumcised people. Of course, none of the data throws any light on why HIV prevalence is so high among people in this province, so high among Luo people especially, yet not among Kisii or Kuria people.

The level of bullying and manipulation by those running mass male circumcision programs (which the HIV industry likes to refer to as voluntary medical male circumcision or VMMC) becomes apparent when you read some of the literature. Although the invasive operation’s claimed protective value against HIV (and goodness knows what else) has never been very convincing, people are systematically browbeaten over a period of years about hygiene benefits, which have never been demonstrated at all, ‘modernity’ of circumcision, ease of using condoms, increased sexual pleasure and a host of other things for which there is no evidence whatsoever.

According to the abstract “older men should adopt the practice to serve as role models to younger men”, as if there is some moral value in circumcision being provided by a benevolent dictator. UNAIDS addsn a commonly heard claim about “queues of young men and boys awaiting” mass male circumcision, which is clearly drawn from publicity materials rather than from any kind of independent research.

Talking of invasive operations, there is a chapter on blood and injection safety, ironically appearing straight after the mass male circumcision chapter. The figures for blood safety do not sound very encouraging, especially remarks about ‘misclassifications’ in donor records. UNAIDS’ ‘all men are bastards, all women are victims’ theory of HIV transmission gets a bit of a knock as well since nearly four times as many men as women said they donated blood in the 12 months before the survey. The findings about injection safety have been mentioned already on this site  when a full paper was published on the subject in May.

The question now is ‘what next’? Mounds of data have been collected over many years, mostly high level data that gives few clues about how people are becoming infected. Data about ‘attitudes’, sexual behavior, economic circumstances, education, etc, have not allowed any useful ‘targeting’ because the usual conclusion is that ‘it is all about sex’ and other kinds of victim blaming. So it’s heartening to hear that data is being collected about blood and injection safety, albeit a very small amount.

The next step needs to involve comprehensive contact tracing, finding out about people’s non-sexual as well as their sexual contacts, visits to health facilities, traditional practitioners, cosmetic providers and anywhere skin-piercing procedures are carried out. If someone is HIV positive it must be asked who, or what did they come into contact with, whether as a result of sexual or any other kind of behavior. Will the deep prejudices of the HIV industry allow them to take these investigations where they need to go, or will the eradication of HIV have to wait until there’s a regime change in the HIV industry?

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